paul callahan…mostly common sense

Gizmo is taking another stab at the mobile space.  Gizmo for Mobile looks like it combines IM, Presence, and some form of low-cost long distance, but the beta release has more than a few holes.  At first glance, it look as though Gizmo has the waterfront covered (see the apparent range of phone supported via the animated GIF).  But reading the Gizmo Forum reveals numerous issues such as lack of support for the Palm Treo Windows products.  In the end, I found the biggest problem to be confusion over mobile clients.  As one poster on the Forum put it, “… can they make this any crazier?”

1. Gizmo for Mobile is a call back system, not SIP.  This client is also known as “Gizmo5″ and is a Java-based application.  As the Gizmo Forum explains, “Gizmo for Mobile can do instant messaging and callback, but it cannot do SIP calling. The instant messaging occurs over your mobile providers data connection, and the callback occurs over the mobile network. The advantage of callback is that in many cases (like international calls) it may be cheaper than what your mobile provider would have charged you for the same call.”  It goes on to say “Our network is calling to both parties, and you do get charged for both legs of the call at our standard Call Out rates.  Many posters are already complaining about the cost of paying for both legs, and are asking why this client doesn’t operate like the laptop verison.

2. Gizmo VoIP uses SIP, but doesn’t do IM.  The Gizmo VoIP client also seems to be known as Gizmo for Nokia.  The client uses the Gizmo SIP network, runs on Nokia phones running Symbian S60 only, and allows users to make free Gizmo calls to other Gizmo users via Wi-Fi.  The supported phones listed presumably have the embedded Nokia SIP stack – hence the reason for Gizmo VoIP using a SIP-based client.  Where this product appears to be going is not is not clear.
3. Gizmo for Palm Treo appears to be different yet again.  This client is supported only on the PalmOS versions of Treos, offers interop with the usual list of most popular IM clients, and seems to offer free calling with other standard Gizmo PC-based clients and Gizmo for Palm Treo.  Though there is little technical information about the protocols in use, the IM and call traffic is all carried via the standard data services offered by mobile operators on these phones.

What next for Gizmo Project?  Rationalize the product line.  This is a mess.  I can only imagine what it must be like for the developers – trying to keep this all straight – let alone potential customers.  Up against Skype and Google, I hope they can keep innovating without tearing themselves apart internally.

Full disclosure: No position in Skype, Google, Nokia, or Palm at time of writing.

Directory Tags: | Wireless | Nokia | Google | Palm | VoIP |Gizmo |Mobile |

Though the market appears to be pumped about femto cells, a number of issues remain unresolved.  Whether those issues turn into storm clouds — and eventually rain on the femto cell parade — is simply a matter of innovation.

If femto cell suppliers can invent solutions that overcome these issues, the femto cell market will launch like a roman candle.  If not, the result will be smoke and sputtering noises for years to come.

Here’s the list in no particular order:

1. Automatic access control and mobility — Femto cells need to prevent drive-by users from camping on inadvertently, but also hand-in and hand-out authorized live calls to and from macro cells.
2. Simple activation — Femto cells need to be as close to zero-touch as possible on activation: probably a single phone call with serial number and a dead-simple web interface to add users.  If femto cells are as bad as Wi-Fi configurations, they will flop.
3. Excellent security — Because femto cells will connect via any Internet service, wireless operators need femto cells to authenticate themselves and then encrypt all traffic using a security tunneling protocol such as IPsec.  Anything less than excellent security will be unacceptable — even for the most liberal wireless operator.
4. High-end scalability — Operators will need to connect millions of femto cells.  But unlike cell phones, femto cells will present millions of IPsec tunnels acting like corporate VPN links that never go down.  This will require great honking security gateways to terminate tunnels and handoff calls.
5. Interference mitigation — As I have previously written, femto cells will need enough intelligence to listen, learn, and then automatically mitigate RF interferenece from macro cells and other femto cells on the block.
6. Core network interface — Because femto cells will use existing mobile phones, they will need to connect to the existing mobile operator core network — often a massively clunky mess.  This has already spurred an architectural battle among femto cell competitors.  Presently it is the wild, wild west, but the least disruptive solution will likely win.

Full disclosure: Employed by AIRV at time of writing.

Directory Tags: | Wireless | WiFi | Wi-Fi | DSL | Cable | UMTS | CDMA | WiMAX | Muni Wi-Fi | Mobile | Femtocell |

Femto cells are miniature base stations — low-power cellular access points for the home environment.  Plug a femto cell into your cable modem or DSL router and you light up 5 bars of CDMA or UMTS cell coverage in your home.  If you live in a small town (like I do) that has been arguing about the location of cell towers for close to eight years, you will be a happy camper.  In the next 12–24 months, virtually every mobile operator in the known universe will be offering femto cells to consumers.

But femto cells are not without their technical hurdles.  One of those challenges is the requirement for femto cells to behave nicely in the overall macro cell radio frequency (RF) system.  In other words, when thousands or millions of femto cells interact with the larger cellular infrastructure in the RF domain, they must mitigate the potential interference with other femto cells and with the surrounding macro cell network.

Most people think of femto cells as Wi-Fi routers or access points with different radios.  But femto cells are quite different from Wi-Fi access points. When Netgear, D-Link, or Buffulo ship consumer-grade Wi-Fi routers or access points, they rarely lose sleep over their products’ interaction as a larger system.  Wi-Fi operates in unlicensed bands on a world-wide basis — and in the world of high-volume Wi-Fi products, each product is considered autonomous as long as it passes the test for regulatory compliance.  Some Wi-Fi products automatically select non-interfering channels and adjust their transmit power to avoid interference, and the whole next generation of Wi-Fi products based on 802.11n will use MIMO technology to punch through the noise.  Even so, few consumer designs consider their behavior in a larger system of millions of chatty little radios.  Since no one has responsibility for the good behavior of the overall system, Wi-Fi is your basic free for all.  If your Wi-Fi router is interfering with your neighbor’s, he can tell you to do something about it…that is, if he can find you.

Back to femto cells.  Unlike Wi-Fi, femto cells will interact with macro cell towers and other femto cells in close proximity.  As a result, every femto cell must have a means of listening to the environment around it, and then adjusting approprately to mitigate interference.  What does appropriately mean?

It turns out that each femto cell manufacturer will have its own method of mitigating RF interference.  But there is — in fact — no standard means of doing so at the moment.  Each femto cell producer will have an opportunity to thrive on inventions that outshine the competiton in this area, or crash and burn on something that hardly works at all.  Stay tuned.  The next 12–18 months will be interesting.

Full disclosure: Employed by AIRV at time of writing.

Directory Tags: | Wireless | WiFi | Wi-Fi | DSL | Cable | UMTS | CDMA | WiMAX | Muni Wi-Fi | Mobile | Femtocell |

I’ve mentioned Truphone in the past as a mobile VoIP by-pass pioneer and declared “advantage Truphone” for the moment.  In fact, I said, “what’s a poor poor Euro-cellular operator to do?  Not much.”  Wrong.  Of course, I was being facecious, but now the tables are turned.

T-Mobile has decided to significantly raise the temperature in the Truphone kitchen.  Om Malik and Jesse Kopelman write about T-Mobile not allowing connections to the VoIP startup.

Now it’s a case of “what’s a poor little startup do do?”

Here is an idea for Truphone CEO, James Tagg.  Drop the whole by-pass strategy and use Truphone’s established infrastructure to deliver a different media service.  I dunno, why not offer a photo sharing system with music and voice over add-ons using the SIP protocol?

Truphone has proven that their infrastructure works and they have absolutely cracked the nut on how to install third party apps in a hostile handset environment. Why not use that expertise for something that won’t send the incumbents into a frenzy of revenge?

Full disclosure: No position in T-Mobile or Truphone at time of writing.

Technorati Tags: | Wireless | WiFi | Wi-Fi | VoIP | 3G | Mobile | T-Mobile |

The telecom world is abuzz with news of femto cells — minature cellular base stations that provide mobile coverage in the home.  A number of wireless operators have announced plans to deploy millions of the widgets (Vodafone, Sprint, Softbank, Orange, Clearwire, and others) and a pile of vendors have announced the intent to offer femto cell products (Huawei, Ericsson, Ubiquisys, ip-access, Airwalk, to name a few).  Femtos are likely to be offered in nearly every flavor of cellular technology: UMTS, GSM, CDMA, and WiMAX.

For consumers the value proposition is simple: better coverage, maybe family in-home calling plans, and higher performance data services since cellular bandwidth is shared by fewer users.

For operators, they get a much lower cost way of delivering mobile broadband — consumers pay for the femtos and the backhaul vial DSL, cable, or fiber services.

If this shift towards tiny base stations in the home does occur in a big way, what does it mean for competing technologies? 

• Muni-Wi-Fi could suffer further indignities.  As carried recently by the AP, it is unclear whether Muni-Wi-Fi can move beyond a community service project.  If mobile operators can offer better stuff via femtos, why would a town pony up for a municiple Wi-Fi project?  Look out, Tropos and BelAir.
• Home Wi-Fi routers will be in a roil.  Wi-Fi’s inherent interference problems will likely be mitigated by the introduction of 802.11n products, but Wi-Fi routers will be competing with femto cell products operating in the licensed spectrum and controlled by experienced operators.  In addition, femto cell products will also plug into the same DSL and cable modems as today’s Wi-Fi routers.  Some DSL router vendors, such as 2Wire have announced plans to offer femto cell products, but it remains unclear whether DSL Wi-Fi routers will subsume cellular femto cell technology or whether it will be the other way around.

Full disclosure: No position in Clearwire, Ericsson, France Telecom, Huawei, Softbank, Sprint, or Vodafone at time of writing.

Directory Tags: | Wireless | WiFi | Softbank | Orange | Clearwire | Wi-Fi | DSL | Cable |Vodafone | Sprint | UMTS | CDMA | WiMAX | Muni Wi-Fi | Mobile | Femtocell |

I received the following thoughtful comments on More on the iPhone network goof:

From Robert Boylin:

Dear Paul Callahan,

You have good points; but with a European launch before ’07 is out, and asia in ’08 I think your skepticism over the 10 million in sales is weak. Apple’s contract with some part supplier(s) is for 6 mil. in ’07 with a potential 2 mil. additional. I think Jobs was conservative in giving the 10 million by the end of ’08. With the broadband networks abroad Apple will have more receptive markets. I expect they’ll add features and software along with new models before ’07 is out.

It’s the cooperation of Yahoo and Google along with supporting the PC and Mac platform software that will be essential. These partners, along with demand, will likely persuade service providers to adjust to the platform’s features. If Apple supports PC software syncing for the business customers the phone’s sales will increase further. They have time to do this. The launch has to be managed and AT&T has to get their 3G network completed for full success. I would expect Apple to sell 3G models by the end of ’07.

Just some thoughts that your article prompted.

Thanks, Robert.  That is very good information on Apple’s supplier contracts.  I agree that sync’ing for business customers will help.  In addition, there is an argument that the focus of real-world use will actually be cellphone+iPod (without a lot of web media access).  That application may be good enough to hit your supplier-promised numbers of 6m units.

Carl Howe has a point.  In his note on “Why the iPhone doesn’t do high-speed mobile phone networks”, Carl offers that Apple may be keeping the door open for deals with mobile operators outside of North America. Agreed.

He also argues that Apple probably did not want to embarrass Cingular by shining a spotlight on the inadequacy of the operator’s HSDPA coverage, or hang the iPhone’s success or failure on a half-built network.  Agreed on both points.

But I still don’t see how Apple can hit its numbers (10m units in FY’08).  In fact, I agree with Eric Savitz of Barron’s. Why?

1. Bad surf.  When it comes to web surfing, EDGE will provide nothing but frustration.  Wi-Fi will fill the gap when available.  But outside of the home, Wi-Fi usually suffers from a case of authentication heartburn — messing with credit cards and security keys.  If it can’t handle high-speed access to the Internet, then don’t call it a breakthrough Internet device that can “read a web page while downloading your email in the background over Wi-Fi or EDGE.”
2. Bad price.  Apple’s iPhone pricing is at the high end of even the Treo smartphone range.  Phones in that category are justified by enterprise applications: calendaring, email, contacts, and task lists.  Apple has no such apps on the iPhone.  This is not say they couldn’t offer them.  In fact, Apple would be very smart to get a skinny version of a Microsoft Exchange client on the iPhone as soon as possible.

Full disclosure: No position in AAPL at time of writing

Technorati Tags: | Wireless | WiFi | Wi-Fi | VoIP | EVDO |3G | HSDPA | Nokia | Mobile |Apple |

Let’s face it, Europe is a different market.  But with daily assertions that the-world-is-flat and one big market, I am still struck by regional interpretations of technology.

Take mobile VoIP, for example.  Though it hasn’t rolled out yet, mobile VoIP for the North American market promises: 

• Presence applications.  VoIP-based apps display the state of the user you are trying to reach: I am on the phone, I am in a meeting, don’t bother me, I am on-line.
• Higher average revenue per user (ARPU).  Operators charge more for market-specific applications. Every contractor and warehouse worker needs push-to-talk (PTT) — which has one of the highest ARPUs in the mobile industry.
• Lower infrastructure costs.  Operators save money on all-IP core networks and get higher voice capacity per cell tower.

But in Europe, mobile VoIP means only one thing at the moment:

• Users by-pass long distance, arbitrage mobile minutes, save money. Mobile operators take it in the shorts.

Witness Truphone’s recent round of financing of $24.5m.  Download the Truphone client to your dual-mode Wi-Fi/GSM phone and make free Wi-Fi mobile-to-mobile calls or save a bunch of money on a salad bar of other VoIP-style deals.  Bottom line, Truphone is establishing itself as a by-pass service provider and there is nothing that Euro-operators can do about it.  How can that be? 

Unlike the US market, customers can buy any GSM phone insert their operator-supplied SIM card and they are off to the races.  If the user chooses to buy a dual-mode phone with both GSM and Wi-Fi, the mobile operator has no control over the Wi-Fi portion of the phone. 

Hmm…Then it must stand to reason that Nokia pushing a pile of Wi-Fi/GSM phones could rub the Euro cell operators the wrong way.  So what?  What’s a poor Euro-cellular operator to do?  Not much.  Since GSM SIM cards have nothing to do with Wi-Fi authentication and authorization, there is almost nothing the operator can do to stop Truphone-style mobile VoIP operators from springing up.  I suppose they could try modifying the ancient GSM standard to somehow gain control over the Wi-Fi radio.  But don’t hold your breath on that one.

Is this a permanent trend?  Definitely.  Truphone’s funding will further legitimize the fledgling “software-only network operator.”

On the horizon, I believe Euro-operators will respond with GSM and UMTS-based femtocell base stations for the home, and with UMA-based services over Wi-Fi.  Until then, advantage Truphone.

Technorati Tags: | Wireless | WiFi | Wi-Fi | VoIP | EVDO |3G | HSDPA | Nokia | Mobile |

Apple’s iPhone will clearly change the landscape for mobile phone manufacturers — and consumer handheld devices overall.  My friend, Carl Howe, at Blackfriars has the best analysis on the announcement.  But there is a small gotcha in the device that not many people are talking about.  The network is a problem.

The iPhone is exclusive to Cingular, and as such it uses Cinglular’s data service to connect to the Internet.  But the specification listed on Apple’s web site shows the iPhone supporting something called GSM/EDGE, a horribly slow network that is marginally better than GSM’s ubiquitous GPRS. 

Cingular is in the process of rolling out its higher speed HSDPA network — a wireless data service that typically can support average datarates of 500–700 Kbps on the downlink and peak data rates of 1.8 Mbps.  Surely, by June when the iPhone ships, Apple and Cingular should think about supporting HSDPA.

Apple may have an exclusive with Cingular, but it might want to think about supporting a subsequent version of the iPhone for the Sprint,Verizon, and other EV-DO Rev A networks.  EV-DO Rev A networks offer QoS and 3.1 Mbps peak data rate on the downlink and 1.8 Mbps on the uplink.

Full disclosure: No position in AAPL at time of writing

Directory Tags: | Wireless | WiFi | Wi-Fi | VoIP | EVDO |3G | Verizon | Apple | Sprint | HSDPA | Muni Wi-Fi | Mobile |

Dan Jones at Unstrung reports that some muni-wireless, at least in Tempe, Arizona’s city-wide Wi-Fi mesh, doesn’t work very well indoors.  This is highly amusing — and ironic, of course — indoor Wi-Fi adapted for the outdoor market trying to get back inside.  If the concept of 3G and Muni Wi-Fi going head to head in the metro has been foggy in the past, it should be clearer now.  To improve coverage and grab more territory:

1. Wi-Fi is moving outdoors.  Though the WiMAX hype machine has been going full tilt, today’s Muni offerings from BelAir, Tropos, and others are Wi-Fi access points with mesh routing software, packaged in outdoor weather-proof enclosures.
    
2. 3G is moving indoors.  Motorola in the U.S. and smaller companies like ip-access in the UK have created tiny base stations for enterprise and home markets.

Though Wi-Fi is positioned as wireless as a 60s movement where the Internet is free, and 3G is seen as the purvue of big carriers, I expect both technologies approaches to continue to thrive.

Like any technology conflict situation, no single technology ever delivers a perfect solution.  Smart product designers will subsume them all and make money doing it.

Directory Tags: | Wireless | WiFi | Wi-Fi | VoIP | EVDO |3G | Verizon | HSDPA | Muni Wi-Fi | Skype | Mobile |